Tools

Search

Explore

Videos Channels Figures

Atmrix

About

Tools

Search

Explore

Videos Channels Figures

Atmrix

About

DK

Daniel Kokotajlo

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

We want to forecast how things are going to go and at what speed, knowing that the median outcome for such forecasts is often being completely wrong.

Video

DP

2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

@ Dwarkesh Patel

2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

04/04/25

Related Takeaways

DK

Daniel Kokotajlo

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

We are trying to take a conservative position in our forecasts, assuming that trends will continue without any major disruptions.

NR

Naval Ravikant

04/01/25

@ Chris Williamson

I analyze technology businesses to predict what will work and what won't, but I'm often wrong. It's like playing the lottery; you only need to be right a few times to hit the big score.

VT

Vlad Tenev

05/24/24

@ The Logan Bartlett Show

We aim to be conservative in our financial modeling to avoid surprises and ensure we can exceed expectations.

DE

Doug Eck

07/22/17

@ Y Combinator

Our job is to build smart AI tools, but we can't predict where this technology will go; it's essential to admit that uncertainty.

SM

Sean Mitchell

05/04/18

@ Y Combinator

Understanding our risk involves back-testing our models against actual rental timelines to ensure our predictions align with reality.

FG

Frederik G. Pferdt

05/14/25

@ EO

We have more control over our future than we think, and how we respond to uncertainty is crucial.

Lv

Luis von Ahn

12/01/23

@ The Logan Bartlett Show

We have been successful because we are good at forecasting and do not overpromise, which has helped us maintain strong investor confidence.

PC

Patrick Collison

11/05/15

@ Greylock

You can't judge decisions solely by their outcomes; instead, you should evaluate them based on their expected value.

PS

Peter Singlehurst

03/19/25

@ 20VC with Harry Stebbings

When investing, you predict future outcomes and sometimes take on uncertainty, which can lead to negative results that are part of the investing process.