While coding is a primary focus, we see a transfer of skills from coding models to enhancing reasoning and agentic behavior in other applications.

Cognition's focus on autonomous coding agents aims to enhance productivity and creativity in software development.

AI's ability to generate code will likely create a net benefit for humanity, as it will change how coding is done but not eliminate the need for human involvement.

When 90 or 95% of all code is generated by AI, the human will still be in the loop; we shouldn't overstate the autonomy of AI.

The integration of AI in coding is creating a new dynamic where developers can focus on higher-level problem-solving rather than just writing code.

In 2025, I expect coding to be a dominant category, with AI potentially making significant scientific discoveries.

The scenario includes a month-by-month analysis of AI developments, starting with agency training and coding improvements, leading to an intelligence explosion where AIs begin to assist in AI research.

As programming evolves, the need for manual coding will decrease, with more emphasis on managing agents that handle coding tasks.

In the future, we may see a shift towards on-demand custom software, where users interact with AI to generate specific code solutions tailored to their needs, resulting in ephemeral programs that solve immediate problems. There will also be a demand for smart individuals who can effectively manage AI coding tools, and if we label them as software engineers, that's acceptable, but the nature of the job will be significantly different.