The current US government is unlikely to implement effective AI regulation, as big AI companies are lobbying for less oversight to prioritize short-term profits.

The United States currently leads the world in AI, but we are witnessing a shift towards what I call 'foundation model diplomacy', where nations are redefining their AI strategies.

Government can play a positive role in AI by funding fundamental research and establishing effective regulations, but it cannot dictate the entire AI landscape.

An AI government could potentially make unbiased decisions based on collective human preferences, but there are significant challenges in ensuring that such a system remains free from external influences.

The government lacks the expertise to regulate AI effectively, while companies may not have the right incentives.

The historical analogy for AI is the transistor, which transformed society and quality of life significantly over a short period.

As AI labs become more capable, they will seek government contracts and support, leading to a closer relationship between the government and AI companies.

The US needs to maintain its leadership in AI to preserve its global hegemony, which could lead to peace for Americans but may disadvantage others globally.

The relationship between the government and AI companies will involve negotiations and power-sharing agreements to ensure alignment with national security interests.