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Scott Alexander

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

As we approach mid-2027, the key factors in AI research will be the taste of AI agents and the amount of compute available for experiments, as these will determine the effectiveness of automated AI research.

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2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

@ Dwarkesh Patel

2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

04/04/25

Related Takeaways

Scott Alexander

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

In our model, we expect that by 2027, AI agents will be able to autonomously conduct AI research, learning from their experiments and improving their methodologies through online learning.

Scott Alexander

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

We envision a scenario where hundreds of thousands to millions of AI agents are working in parallel, but the real limitations will be in taste and computational resources, not the number of agents.

Trenton Bricken

05/23/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

In the coming years, we will see more experiments on how to effectively deploy and manage multiple AI agents for complex tasks.

Daniel Kokotajlo

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

The scenario includes a month-by-month analysis of AI developments, starting with agency training and coding improvements, leading to an intelligence explosion where AIs begin to assist in AI research.

Scott Alexander

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

The efficiency of AI agents in conducting research will depend on their ability to learn from experiments and adapt their strategies, which may lead to breakthroughs in various fields.

Dwarkesh Patel Cast

05/23/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

If we don't see robust AI agents by next year, it may indicate a significant challenge in achieving effective computer use.

Daniel Kokotajlo

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

The intelligence explosion is expected to occur in 2027, with AIs significantly accelerating research progress through a multiplier effect.

Sam Altman

08/02/19

@ Khosla Ventures

The advancements in AI depend significantly on the amount of computing power we allocate and the timing of unpredictable breakthroughs.

Sequoia Capital Cast

02/25/25

@ Sequoia Capital

The year 2025 is anticipated to be significant for AI agents, with a focus on their breakout potential in various applications.