We're at a pivotal moment for video and agent-based AI, with significant advancements expected this year.

The first cohort of AI's killer apps has emerged, including ChatGPT and others, indicating a significant shift in the market, while many new companies will adopt an agent-first approach, evolving from basic prototypes to robust agents capable of performing complex tasks.

If we don't see robust AI agents by next year, it may indicate a significant challenge in achieving effective computer use.

In 2025, I envision a lot of business adoption of agents, automating repetitive tasks and scaling up operations that were previously too expensive. This could lead to significant efficiency improvements.

In 2025, I expect coding to be a dominant category, with AI potentially making significant scientific discoveries.

The intelligence explosion is expected to occur in 2027, with AIs significantly accelerating research progress through a multiplier effect.

As we approach mid-2027, the key factors in AI research will be the taste of AI agents and the amount of compute available for experiments, as these will determine the effectiveness of automated AI research.

AI 2027 is our scenario trying to forecast the next few years of AI progress, aiming to provide a concrete story that shows the transitional steps leading to AGI in 2027 and potentially superintelligence in 2028.

I believe significant advancements in AI will likely occur after 2030, which is when I think we might see a real AGI moment.