I don't think we can pinpoint a specific moment when we achieve AGI; rather, it will be a continuous exponential curve of progress over time.

While there are still missing pieces for achieving AGI, the incremental improvements in AI technology suggest we are on the right path. When we unlock the gap between System One and System Two thinking, that's when we make a significant step forward in AI.

I can't provide a specific timeline for AGI, but I estimate we are several research breakthroughs away from it becoming a reality.

The biggest obstacles to reaching AGI are new research challenges, as AI research does not follow the same timeline as engineering, often taking much longer to yield results. This non-linear progress of technology can be seen in historical examples like the rapid development of the atomic bomb from the theoretical concept of the neutron in the early 1900s to its realization in the 1940s.

We're seeing incredible progress in AI, with existing techniques being pushed to their limits and new inventions being developed continuously. However, achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may require one or two more breakthroughs.

The timeline for achieving AGI has shifted; I initially thought it would take about 15 years, but now I estimate we might reach significant milestones by 2030 or 2031. We had extensive discussions about the safety and alignment of artificial general intelligence (AGI), recognizing the potential risks if something goes horribly wrong.

The focus should shift from pinpointing an AGI moment to recognizing that AI will continue to evolve beyond our current understanding.

The first AGI will represent just one point in the continuum of intelligence, and its impact on society will unfold over time rather than instantaneously, reshaping our understanding of work and discovery.

As we approach AGI, we are at a pivotal moment in history, where the potential for both great advancements and significant challenges exists.