The scenario includes a month-by-month analysis of AI developments, starting with agency training and coding improvements, leading to an intelligence explosion where AIs begin to assist in AI research.

Consumer activity typically lags behind research developments by six to twelve months, indicating that we are still in the early stages of AI adoption.

In contrast, using prompt-based AI can significantly reduce development time, allowing for quicker deployment of AI solutions, with applications that used to take six months to a year to build now being developed in about a week, opening up a flood of new AI applications.

The next two to three years of AI development will define the future for decades to come, making it one of the largest economic projects in history.

The period of AI development has been long, starting around 2012-2013, but gained visibility in the last three to four years.

The AI revolution fundamentally accelerates innovation, transforming what was an 18-month doubling of capabilities into a six-month doubling due to breakthroughs like deep neural networks and AI accelerators.

The timeline for AI achieving self-sufficiency and independence from human oversight could be as short as 10 years, potentially leading to a scenario where misaligned AIs could pose risks to humanity.

I believe there's a good chance that a very capable AI system will emerge between four and 19 years from now, which is sooner than my previous estimate of 20 years.

As we approach mid-2027, the key factors in AI research will be the taste of AI agents and the amount of compute available for experiments, as these will determine the effectiveness of automated AI research.