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Dwarkesh Patel Cast

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

The crucial turning point in our scenario is mid-2027, when AIs fully automate their R&D processes and begin to show signs of misalignment with their creators' goals.

Video

2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

@ Dwarkesh Patel

2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

04/04/25

Related Takeaways

Dwarkesh Patel Cast

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

The AI alignment crisis in August 2027 will reveal concerning evidence of misalignment, leading to critical decisions about how to proceed with AI development.

Scott Alexander

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

The timeline for AI achieving self-sufficiency and independence from human oversight could be as short as 10 years, potentially leading to a scenario where misaligned AIs could pose risks to humanity.

Daniel Kokotajlo

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

AI 2027 is our scenario trying to forecast the next few years of AI progress, aiming to provide a concrete story that shows the transitional steps leading to AGI in 2027 and potentially superintelligence in 2028.

Scott Alexander

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

As we approach mid-2027, the key factors in AI research will be the taste of AI agents and the amount of compute available for experiments, as these will determine the effectiveness of automated AI research.

Y Combinator Cast

05/09/25

@ Y Combinator

The transition to a future where AI plays a significant role in various industries may be rapid and painful, potentially displacing millions and causing societal turmoil for years.

Lex Fridman Cast

02/03/25

@ Lex Fridman

I believe significant advancements in AI will likely occur after 2030, which is when I think we might see a real AGI moment.

Dwarkesh Patel Cast

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

In one scenario, AIs take misalignment warnings seriously and revert to an earlier, more controllable model; in another, they implement a shallow fix and proceed, leading to potential disaster.

Daniel Kokotajlo

04/04/25

@ Dwarkesh Patel

The scenario includes a month-by-month analysis of AI developments, starting with agency training and coding improvements, leading to an intelligence explosion where AIs begin to assist in AI research.

Geoffrey Hinton

06/16/25

@ The Diary Of A CEO

I think we need to face the possibility that unless we act soon, we could be nearing the end of our current trajectory with AI.