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Drone Warfare: The New Rules of Combat Are Here
@ a16z
04/12/25
Takeaways
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
Drones have reshaped the nature of warfare in the past decade, enabling more distributed, decentralized, and lethal force structures, as seen in the Ukraine conflict.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The U.S. must embrace a strategy that empowers service members with a hundred times more systems to enhance their effectiveness and ensure their safety.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The asymmetry in warfare is evident when a drone costing a few thousand dollars can take out a system worth millions, a reality that the U.S. military has yet to fully address.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The U.S. military's reliance on exquisite systems has created a disparity in drone production capabilities compared to adversaries like China, which can produce drones at a much larger scale.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The U.S. needs to reindustrialize to close the gap in drone production capabilities with China, which has a substantial manufacturing capacity for low-cost, capable systems.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The industrial capacity of China is fearsome, especially in deploying highly autonomous AI-driven drones at scale, which presents a significant challenge for the U.S.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The U.S. must focus on combining mass production capabilities with advanced software and autonomy to compete effectively in future conflicts.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The future of warfare will increasingly rely on AI and autonomy, moving from one-to-one operations to advanced autonomous systems that can communicate and operate independently.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The technologies that matter most to the future of warfare are right in front of us, and the security challenge is whether we can mobilize the bureaucracy to operationalize autonomy technologies effectively.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The U.S. military's drone programs are operating at the scale of thousands, while the Ukrainian military is using drones at the rate of millions per year, highlighting a significant gap in operational scale.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The military's purchasing power can significantly influence the consumer drone market, equipping soldiers with modern technology and driving industrial growth.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
China has developed an asymmetric military strategy that allows them to counter U.S. capabilities, such as using carrier strike missiles to destroy assets worth tens of billions for a fraction of the cost.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The U.S. Department of Defense is working on Project Replicator to counter China's advancements in military technology, focusing on reallocating funds from older systems to newer ones.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
China's advancements in swarm technologies are notable, as demonstrated by their impressive drone light shows during events like the Chinese New Year, showcasing their capabilities in this area.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
Current drone light shows rely heavily on GPS and communication links, which are vulnerable to jamming on the modern battlefield, making them less relevant for military operations.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
In civilian markets, Skydio's advantage over DJI lies in its advanced AI and autonomy capabilities, allowing its drones to sense and respond to environments in real time, outperforming DJI's technology.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
Skydio aims to contribute to the industrial base by enabling the deployment of highly autonomous AI-driven drones at scale, which is crucial for maintaining military effectiveness.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
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The first generation of Skydio drones failed in Ukraine due to a lack of focus on electronic warfare capabilities, leading to a significant redesign to operate effectively in GPS-denied environments.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
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After learning from failures in Ukraine, Skydio adapted its technology to operate without GPS, demonstrating resilience and capability in harsh environments.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
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The speed of software deployment is critical in modern warfare; Skydio was able to write and implement new software for its drones in just 24 hours to adapt to battlefield conditions.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The ethical implications of using autonomous drones in warfare are significant, as the goal is to minimize human suffering while ensuring precision in targeting.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
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Human judgment remains crucial in military operations, even as AI and autonomy play larger roles in decision-making processes.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
The U.S. must lead in technological advancements to ensure that adversaries do not dominate AI capabilities, as this could lead to unacceptable outcomes in global security.
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a16z Cast
04/12/25
@ a16z
Founders in defense tech should embrace the challenges of building in high-stakes environments, as the mission of contributing to security and stability is worth the effort.